A delicate balance
Investment
- Singapore’s investment sales witnessed a dip in 4Q 2024 to S$6.5 billion. Nonetheless, total sales rose 28.7% YoY to S$25.2 billion for 2024 compared to 2023.
Office
- Singapore’s office market experienced an increase in overall occupancy to 95.0% in 4Q 2024, driven by demand in the CBD. Both Premium and Grade A rents in the CBD remained stable for 2024.
Industrial
Singapore’s industrial property index saw a 3.5% YoY growth in 2024. Island-wide occupancy rates held steady at 89.0% in 4Q 2024, with warehouse rising to 91.5% and Business Parks declining to 77.9%. Warehouse rents grew 1.0% QoQ, while Business Park rents fell 1.0% QoQ.
Retail
- Singapore’s retail sector remains resilient, bolstered by the recovery of tourism, high occupancy rates, and steady leasing demand. Singapore’s retail sector remains a prime destination for global brands and investors.
Residential
- Singapore’s residential market saw a rise in transaction volume to 21,950 units in 2024, driven by strong primary sales in 4Q 2024. Rental rates fell 1.9% YoY, but transaction volume grew 4.7% YoY, indicating market stabilisation.
Momentum building
INVESTMENT
Performance
- Investment sales reached S$8.2 billion in 3Q 2024, fuelled by strong developer activity in Government Land Sales and key acquisitions by REITs.
Outlook
- The GLS market is expected to maintain steady activity through the rest of the year. Investors will remain focused on identifying opportunities as a part of their investment strategies.
OFFICE
Performance
- Singapore’s central region office rental index declined marginally by 0.5% QoQ, while overall occupancy rates dipped slightly to 94.5%.
Outlook
- The recent completion of new developments is expected to create new opportunities for tenants to explore occupancy strategies. However, without any significant demand drivers, rental rates are expected to remain stable throughout the year.
INDUSTRIAL
Performance
- Industrial property prices rose 0.5% QoQ in 3Q 2024, led be multi-user factories. Overall occupancy rates remain steady at 89.0%.
Outlook
- Prices and rental rates for multi-user factories are expected to rise as electronics and semiconductor manufacturing output improves. Rental rates in the business parks and hi-tech parks segment are anticipated to face additional pressure from elevated vacancy rates in suburban areas, particularly as the PDD approaches completion in 2025.
RETAIL
Performance
- Island-wise occupancy rate increased to 93.5% in 3Q 2024. Rental rates in Orchard/Scotts Road and Fringe/Suburban areas saw a 0.3% rise QoQ, while Other City Areas remained stable.
Outlook
- Prime retail rents are expected to experience sustained growth, due to limited pipeline of upcoming retail supply, steady domestic demand and a rise in international visitor arrivals.
RESIDENTIAL
Performance
- Residential property price index fell 0.7% QoQ, attributed by the landed segment which witnessed a 3.4% decline QoQ. Rental rates found its footing, rising 0.8% after declining for three consecutive quarters.
Outlook
- For 4Q 2024, we expect primary sales transactions to rise, attributed to positive take-up rates in several new launch projects at record price levels. Residential rental rates are expected remain stable as landlords and tenants bridge pricing expectations.
Gaining Momentum
Landed homes
- Landed luxury home transaction volume relatively remained unchanged at 43 units transacted in 1H 2024, from 42 units in 2H 2023. Total transaction quantum increased 14.7% to S$803.8 million on higher quantum per transaction in the segment.
- Luxury detached houses recorded 32 of the 43 transactions in 1H 2024, increasing 39.1% from the 23 transactions in 2H 2023. Luxury semi-detached and terrace houses, on the other hand, saw a decline to 11 units and recorded S$124.1 million in 1H 2023.
- Good Class Bungalows (GCB) contributed 52.9% to the total detached house quantum 1H 2024. The price per sq ft for these GCB sites ranged from S$1,050 to S$2,990, and the average per-sq-ft price of S$2,138 achieved in 1H 2024 marks the highest average price per sq ft recorded since 1H 2020.
Non-landed homes
- Average price of luxury non-landed homes increased in 1H 2024, amid a lower transaction volume of 16 units, down from 18 in 2H 2023. Total sale quantum for luxury non-landed stood at S$249.6 million in 1H 2024.
- In 1H 2024, one penthouse unit from The Skywaters Residences and two adjacent units from The Ritz-Carlton Residences were transacted above S$5,000 per sq ft. The penthouse unit at The Skywater Residences was sold for S$47.3 million, or S$6,100 per sq ft. Meanwhile, over in the secondary sales market, the two adjacent Ritz-Carlton units changed hands at S$16.5 million each, translating to S$5,367 per sq ft. While it is atypical for secondary sales to reach the high of S$5,000 per sq ft, there were 11 of such transactions from 2021 to date.
Foreign demand
- Total foreign demand quantum in 1H 2024 fell to S$171.7 million from S$196.0 million in 2H 2023. Foreign demand for luxury homes has continued to decrease, influenced by the implementation of the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) for foreign purchasers. The transaction volume declined to 10 units in the first half of 2024, compared to 13 units in the second half of 2023.
- Of the 10 units transacted, there was only a sole transaction where the buyer was a non-permanent resident (NPR). The remaining 9 units were purchased by Singapore permanent residents (SPRs). This could suggest that the ABSD regulation in April 2023 has successfully deterred NPRs from entering the luxury home market in Singapore, or that they are seeking to become SPRs before making their investment decisions.
Rekindling Growth
INVESTMENT
Performance
- Investment sales reached S$6.3 billion in 2Q 2024, spurred by government land transactions and a few successful collective sales. Amid ongoing uncertainties, developers remain cautious but retain strong interest in prime locations.
Outlook
- Investment sales are expected to moderate as developers navigate these challenges. While the introduction of the Long Stay Serviced Apartment (SA II) and the substantial land supply anticipated in the latter half of 2024 may spur interest, the overall investment sentiment will likely remain cautious. The pace of investment growth may be tempered, with developers expecting to focus on projects with clear viability and reduced risks.
OFFICE
Performance
- Singapore’s office market in 1H 2024 saw stable rental rates despite a 1.0% dip in occupancy rates to 94.8%. This was on the back of new CBD supply arising from the partial completion of IOI Central Boulevard Towers.
Outlook
- Islandwide occupancy rates are expected to be under pressure in 2024 with three major office projects targeted for completion in 2H 2024. Grade A rental rates in the CBD are anticipated to remain stable for the remainder of 2024.
INDUSTRIAL
Performance
- Singapore’s industrial market witnessed positive performance in 1H 2024 as manufacturing expanded, while overall industrial occupancy rose to 89.0%. Divergence in rental performances widened between centrally located and suburban business parks.
Outlook
- The electronics manufacturing sector’s positive trend is expected to continue into 2H 2024, driven by support for AI advancements in the semiconductor segment. Multiuser factories and warehouse/logistics sectors are likely to benefit from the sustained growth in manufacturing sector, thus supporting rental rates in these segments. Conversely, rental rates for business parks and hitech industrial spaces may face pressure due to high vacancies with limited qualifying occupiers for these segments.
RETAIL
Performance
- In 2Q 2024, prime first-storey rental rates along Orchard/Scotts Road increased by 0.4%, reaching S$41.00 per sq ft. This rise in rental rates was driven by gradual rebound in tourism, with increasing visitor arrivals and tourism receipts. The limited supply of prime retail spaces is expected to spur strong interest and continued rental growth. Rental rates in Fringe/Suburban Areas remained stable at S$34.00 per sq ft, while Other City Areas held steady at S$19.35 per sq ft.
Outlook
- Given the expected growth in visitor arrivals and a limited supply pipeline of retail projects in the near term, rents and occupancy rates are expected to remain robust throughout 2024.
RESIDENTIAL
Performance
- Residential property prices saw moderate growth of 2.3% in 1H 2024. A ripple effect in the CCR and RCR drove growth in property prices. Rental rates faced pressure with the expected new supply and the shift in focus towards serviced apartments.
Outlook
- For 2H 2024, residential prices are anticipated to increase moderately. As the market adjusts and establishes new price levels, price growths are expected to stabilize following the recent upward shift caused by the ripple effect. Rents are expected to continue being under pressure, given around 7,000 units due for completion in 2H 2024 and 2025. The increasing interest in serviced apartments may add further pressure onto rents in the market.
Cautious optimism as market prepares for growth
INVESTMENT
Performance
- Investment sales transaction in 1Q 2024 recorded a lower total quantum of S$4.2 billion. Government Land Sales (GLS), as a share of total investment sales, fell from 52.3% to 32.1% or in absolute terms, from S$2.9 billion to S$1.3 billion. This decline was due to smaller-size transactions and the rejection of the sole bid for Marina Gardens Crescent GLS site.
- In the private sector, S$2.8 billion was recorded for 1Q 2024, with a shift from office to retail and hospitality sectors. This shift may be due to investors changing their focus towards alternate asset classes amid the current higher interest rate environment.
Outlook
- For the rest of 2024, we expect the investment sales market to continue be bolstered by GLS sales and higher yield asset classes from the retail or hospitality sectors. Investment sales volume and transaction quantum could pick up, given that economic activities are showing signs of recovery and interest rates cuts are on the horizon.
OFFICE
Performance
- Singapore’s office leasing market in 1Q 2024 exhibited resilience in the Central Business District (CBD). Shadow spaces declined from approximately 332,000 sq ft in 4Q 2023 to approximately 245,000 sq ft in 1Q 2024. The amount of shadow space is expected to continue decreasing, given that many of such leases are due to expire by 2024/2025. In addition, office rents in the first quarter across all micro-markets remained unchanged QoQ, due to numerous lease renewals and corporates right-sizing their office spaces.
Outlook
- The upcoming Labrador Towers and Paya Lebar Green are poised to alleviate the office space supply, adding approximately 913,000 sq ft of office space by 4Q 2024. This could lead to a slight decline in occupancy rates islandwide for 2024, potentially applying pressure on rental rates. However, there may be increased leasing activity as corporations gravitate towards green and Grade A office spaces.
INDUSTRIAL
Performance
- In 1Q 2024, islandwide occupancy rates dipped to 88.7%, with business parks experiencing its 8th consecutive quarter of decline to 78%. Overall rental indices climbed 1.7% QoQ in 1Q 2024, albeit with a 0.2% decline in price index for all industrial spaces.
Outlook
- The surge in artificial intelligence interest is expected to bolster semiconductor demand, supporting stable factory prices and rental rates for 2024. However, the Business Park sector may see higher vacancy rates with an expected GFA completion of approximately 3.7 million sq ft in 2H 2024, notably the Punggol Digital District, which could attract tech tenants and potentially support suburban business park rental rates.
RETAIL
Performance
- Retail rents modestly grew in 1Q 2024. Prime first-storey rates rose 0.7% QoQ to S$40.85 psf in Orchard/Scotts Road and S$34.00 psf in Fringe/Suburban Areas. In the Other City Area micro-market, rates increased 0.3% QoQ to S$19.35 psf.
Outlook
- Rental growth across all micro-markets is anticipated for the rest of 2024 due to high occupancy rates and limited supply in the pipeline for the next three years.
RESIDENTIAL
Performance
- The overall property price index saw 1.4% QoQ growth in 1Q 2024, a moderation from the 2.8% growth in 4Q 2023. Transaction volume dipped slightly to 4,145 units in 1Q 2024, down from 4,295 units in 4Q 2023, representing a 3.5% decline. Foreign investment remained subdued, with foreign buyers constituting only 1.0% of total residential units in 1Q 2024.
Outlook
- The property market is poised for moderate growth, supported by sustained demand for new launches and anticipated supply expansions. However, challenges loom in the rental sector due to an influx of completed projects, potentially tempering rental growth throughout the year.